I was wondering - where had I seen 'ster's take on "today's world order" before. And then I recalled:

www.jabberwocky.com/carroll/jabber/jabberwocky.html

Robster, you devote quite a few keystrokes to your replies to me which I appreciate. This latest especially good.


Robster wrote:
MonsoonWind

The last two of your questions are easy. Hubris in a word. The problem arose out of the fall of the USSR in the late 1980's. The whole world including the US mistakenly ascribed the event as an American triumph, when in fact the US merely outlasted the Soviets becoming the world Hegemon by default, not defeating them. It also didn't help electing the most irresponsible president (Clinton) in the 1990's and the 'stupidest man in the universe' to the presidency (Bush Jr) in 2000. One of America's living statesmen, James Baker the III divined the problem right from the beginning when the Soviets fell. He said: "There but by the grace of God go we." He is one of those 'wise men' who are working again to set America straight.


You appear to be right on target there. Despite having in the USA private property ownership, private enterprise production, palpably better living standards and a range of civil liberties unknown in the Soviet Union, as the Cold war progressed the two superpowers became surprisingly alike. A great deal of the industrial product, scientific knowhow etc of both was devoted to the arms race and space race. IN the USSR this resulted in ongoing shortages of basic consumer items including foodstuffs; America was spared this by the ability of allied trading partners (Japan, western Europe) to supply the defecit.

[/quote]Being that today's world order is a multi-polar global environment, no state, axis or alliance of states has command of the necessary technology and resources to replace the US as the global Hegemon. Depletion of strategic natural resources in minerals and energy handicaps all nations, including the US.[/quote]

Don't wish to sound smug, but out here we don't seem to be doing too badly out of the resources trade. NO way we can become a global power, but as long as our borders remain secure, do we need to be? Back later!

Robster wrote:
MonsoonWind

As for why the American people elected fools like Clinton and Bush Jr. to the presidency is a far more complex and difficult question. I can clearly see the obvious political line leading back to Gingrich who rose to power due to the populist revolt against Clinton in his first mid-term election in 1994. I warned fellow Republicans in my bailiwick then that insane jerk would destroy the Republican party, besides corrupting, compromising or destroying the host of new republicans elected into the party by the populist wave. Drunk with power none of them liked my remarks then. They like them even less today. Its a good question.


Surely that partly relates to the callibre of the candidates opposed to Clinton and BUsh Jr. Not always a case of the winner winning but of the loser giving the winner victory by default.

THE procedure used by the Partys in selecting candidates can be highly flawed. IN Your US Representative system charisma counts big time - so a candidate with the gift of the gab and friends in the Party machine (but little merit in such weighty maters as policy formulation) can feasably be elected. I point to this because in a parliamentry system where it is the team that gets elected on the basis of PArty policy (THE PRime Minister or Opposition leader need only be presentable, not necessarily charismatic).

Best of luch trying to talk sense to your fellow Republicans

Australia's national debt currently stands at just over 13% of our GRoss domestic product (GDP). TWo years ago it was zero % of GDP the jump was brought about by the Rubb government's stimulous package budget defecit. Our Partys of Opposition are jumping up and down about it: proclaiming that "it will burden future generations with debt". Well, part of the craft of Opposition seems to be making mountains out of molehills, if only for the free publicity.

THis morning on TV I heard that the US national debt currently stands at 250% of GDP. That means it would take the dollar value of about two and one half years of US economic production at full capacity to liquidate the debt. Japan I Believe is only slightly better placed with a national bebt equal to around 200% of GDP. Becoming that indebted must have taken genius to acheive, for JApan never had to sustain America's Cold War military/industrial costs nor a global military reach since.

The USA and Japan are respectively the Worlds first and second biggest (commercially based) economys. Which does not auger well for global fiscal stability in the forseeable future.

If a public corporation or private company were so indebted (to the point of non-sustainability) I am sure that control would have been handed to the receivers by now. IN recent historical memory certain LATin AMerican republics had to go to the IMF for bailout money, yet I am sure that their level of indebtedness was nowhere near as high as JApan's or the USA's. Yet the New York ratings agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor, still continue to give both countries triple A credit ratings, same as Australia.

Why?

MonsoonWind

Why?

More importantly, the massive national debts of the US, Japan and other countries should compel everyone to gather all the economic theories of history, pile them on the ash dump of history and torch them. Than round up all the economic theorists and their acolytes and shoot them.

The simple fact of the matter is that the US was bankrupted back in the world depression of the 30's, just like everyone else regardless of whether their national governments today are in deficit or balance. Monetary policy and finance capitalism is the worlds greatest and current fiction of debt and growth.

The game is to keep the post world war II, global economic paradigm alive on life support. Because if the fiction dies, or someone stupidly kills it, like a black hole in outer space, everyone, including Australia will be remorselessly sucked into the ultimate singularity of global, economic collapse.

No one is immune. No one will escape. Those other two facts are the 2nd and 3rd greatest global fictions of the day. The vital question is how much elasticity does the lie have before it explodes? Its beyond stunning it has lasted this long.

"Its beyond stunning it has lasted this long."

the answer to that is in, "Monetary policy and finance capitalism is the worlds greatest and current fiction of debt and growth. "


fiction? or is monetary policy a smaller part of the equation than "the economic theorists and their acolytes" thought. When you take an aspect of something and project it as pivotal [causal] and focus a disproportionate amount of human energy on it you get an imbalance that will need to be corrected.


rather than shooting the current financial expertcracy, I would suggest prison farms, day labor in some hot southern climate is thought to be a humbling experience.

As to burning the material a better choice might be
www.paecon.net/

When I walked out of second year economics in 1967 I was mostly alone, seeing a organization of young people challenging the status quo in Universities is very gratifying. My first thought when I came across this web site, was that I will die happier.

Robster wrote:
MonsoonWind

Why?

More importantly, the massive national debts of the US, Japan and other countries should compel everyone to gather all the economic theories of history, pile them on the ash dump of history and torch them. Than round up all the economic theorists and their acolytes and shoot them.

The simple fact of the matter is that the US was bankrupted back in the world depression of the 30's, just like everyone else regardless of whether their national governments today are in deficit or balance. Monetary policy and finance capitalism is the worlds greatest and current fiction of debt and growth.

The game is to keep the post world war II, global economic paradigm alive on life support. Because if the fiction dies, or someone stupidly kills it, like a black hole in outer space, everyone, including Australia will be remorselessly sucked into the ultimate singularity of global, economic collapse.

No one is immune. No one will escape. Those other two facts are the 2nd and 3rd greatest global fictions of the day. The vital question is how much elasticity does the lie have before it explodes? Its beyond stunning it has lasted this long.

Rob.

A fiscal implosion of the United States such as you describe (a collapse of the big fiscal PONzi scam) would not be welcomed by anyone. Yet from my perspective you may be surprised at the effect were it to happen.

Even after the celebrated capastrophes of the past (the fall of the Roman Empire, the Black Death) life still went on; history did not come to an abrupt end. A US financial catastrophe would effect the different countries - a few may even posatively benefit.

Those with greatest merchantile dependence on the USA (Sorry MIchael) like Canada and your immediate LAtino neighbours would go down like bags of shit. Europe's fortunes would be irreparably damaged. But monsoon ASia?

(Please read my recent comments in the discussion CHINESE PERCEPTIONS OF U.S. DECLINE AND POWER)

The PRC would be temporarily set back by the loss of its accumulated trade surplusses currently invested in US treasury notes. Yet I get te impression that as a last resort the PRC could afford to lose these. A couple of years ago (When it was becoming clear that the world would suffer recession) the doomsayers were forecasting that CHina would plunge into recession due to the loss of its then burgeoning export trade with the UNIted STates. But it has not happened! China is still growing at a respectable pace based upon the dynamic of their domestic economy - and have bouyed up the economies of all of its immediate neighbours and trading partners (including my own) through its ongoing purchases.

THE CHinese Yuan is unassailable as it is not a floated, internationally tradable, currency.

THE PRC is not exactly in a hurry to see its Yuan replace the US$ as the World's reserve currency; for there are costs as well as benefits to that. Yet already with countrys suffering balance of payments problems (eg Argentina) Beijing has already entered into currency swap deals - in effect rendering the Yuan a limited alternative reserve currency for selective trading purposes.

I have reason to believe that even if the world of American capitalism goes down, "civilisation as we know it" will still survive on the western side of the PAcific Ocean. JUst as after the collapse of the western Roman Empire the fruits of Greco-Roman civilisation survived in the form of the Byzantine Empire.

ER, from the MOgambu Guru today (1Sept):

"...actual debt is almost $12 trillion and the GDP is $14 trillion, making the debt-to-GDP ratio 86% already!

In my earlier post (2 above) I Stated " THis morning on TV I heard that the US national debt currently stands at 250% of GDP"

Which information is right?

I hope and pray that Richard Daughty (alias MG) is right. 86% of GDP sounds much more manageable: bearing in mind that at the end of World WAR TWo the US national debt is reputed to have been over 120% of GDP.

How did the US pay off so much of it? I am not aware of US governments after the war having run budget surplusses.