Israel struggles to adapt to a changing picture of Iran

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/100afe94-672e-11de-92...bdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

....As for suggestions that Israel is ready to bomb Iran to prevent Mr Ahmadi-Nejad from getting his hands on nuclear weapons, the issue was now more complicated. “How do you bomb Neda?” the diplomat said, in a reference to Neda Salehi Agha-Soltan, the young woman whose death on the streets of Tehran has become a symbol of the regime’s repression.

Mr Netanyahu would doubtless dispute this analysis, but the Israeli prime minister’s views no longer carry weight. Until my discussions this week with Israeli politicians and scholars from across the political spectrum I had not realised quite how comprehensively he had wrecked his own foreign policy.

Israel envoy: Netanyahu row with Obama causes strategic damage

www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1105786.html

Lieberman urges Boston consul to resign for rebuking Israel policy

www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1106493.html

Jewish leaders in city defend Israeli consul amid uproar

tinyurl.com/nbn8vt

Leaders of Boston’s Jewish community yesterday rallied strongly behind Israel’s consul general for New England, Nadav Tamir, who was summoned to Jerusalem this week to explain his controversial memo saying Israel’s handling of its relations with the United States was “causing strategic damage’’ to American public support for Israel.

A Jewish/American view of the US/Israeli special relationship

Losing Patience with Israel

www.theatlantic.com/doc/200908u/kaplan-israel

Indeed, having sacrificed so much for the sake of the Middle East’s future, America will not think twice about asking its friends—especially the one it bankrolls, and which is occupying densely Arab-populated land—to sacrifice, too. Many, both in the Administration and in the wider Washington establishment, have simply lost patience with what they see as Israeli intransigence over settlements in occupied territories. This may not be fair, or even wholly logical, for the issue of settlements is highly complex. But the reality is that Washington’s quiet passions have turned decidedly against Israel...

...As for the matter of Israel’s influence on U.S. policymaking, that will only wane as a new generation of immigrant elites – from Asia, the Muslim world, and the Indian Subcontinent – take their places inside America’s civilian bureaucracy and military ranks. Israel is not central to the analytical concerns of these young, newly minted Americans. To them, it is just another country with which America must engage according to its interests. If anything, for this new generation—and, in fact, for the Obama Administration – it is countries like China, India, and Indonesia that are becoming the principal areas of focus....

... All of this leaves Israel in an increasingly lonely position. With whom can it negotiate? With Fatah, which is relatively moderate, but lacks support among Palestinians themselves? With Hamas, which has support, but which demonstrates no proclivity to make peace?...

Both politically and demographically, time is not on Israel’s side. Now that Iran is weakened by domestic turmoil, it may actually be in Israel’s best interests for America, Saudi Arabia, and other moderate Arab states to impose a peace agreement by leaning hard on the Palestinians, as America twists Israel's arm. The result would be the return of almost all of the West Bank to a fundamentally demilitarized Palestinian state, even as many Israeli settlements are dismantled. What other resolution can there be?


A Israeli/Zionist view of the US/Israeli special relationship

Analysis: Why Nefesh B'Nefesh changes everything.

tinyurl.com/mdlqml

...The new American aliya may never be great in numbers, but it will play a social role unlike any previous aliya.

This is aliya as education, an essentially American phenomenon through which American Jews take ownership of the Land of Israel for their own purposes - not statehood, but identity.

To survive and flourish, American Jewry doesn't need Jewish political sovereignty. As parts of the community drift away, the community wants to tap into the organic ethnicity and authenticity of Israeli life and "landedness."

In a world of chosen identities and individualism, American Jewry is using Israel as part of its own path to spiritual and institutional survival.

Other Jewish communities come to Israel; American Jews, even in aliya, are bringing Israel to America.

An American/Jew and Israeli view on the real nature of the US/Israeli relationship.

Our master's voice

www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1106408.html

Mullen has reiterated Obama's commitment for the establishment of a Palestinian state side-by-side with Israel. In other words, Mullen wants to say that while the Americans are building their force for a military campaign against Iran which insists on going nuclear, they need time during which there are no unilateral actions, and which are characterized by political flexibility vis-a-vis the Palestinians.

In light of the dependence that characterizes the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem, this is not a request: It is a gently phrased order.

Inching toward Compromise in the Middle East

www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6338

Contrary to what the news anchor believed, Israel is not free to flaunt U.S. pressure. Here are some indications of Israeli deference. In early July, a senior Israeli official said that Israel hasn't asked for U.S. permission to attack Iran because the Netanyahu government doesn't want to risk being told "no." And in early August, Barak told Israel radio that Israel restrained its attack on Lebanon in 2006 because "a message from the United States indicated we must spare Lebanon's infrastructure."

In other words, when the U.S. government gives an order and really means it, the Israeli government has obeyed and will obey. Israel won't bite the hand that feeds it several billion dollars a year. As Israeli journalist Amir Oren recently wrote, his country's leaders have no choice but to heed "our master's voice." (Barak's insistence that Israel would not let itself be restrained again, in another war against Lebanon, was simply more public posturing, though this time probably for domestic politics. With Netanyahu's popularity falling, Barak uses tough talk to curry favor with the right and position himself the heir to the throne.)

The Israelis know who is in charge. That's why, despite their bluster and posturing, they've accepted the inevitable curb on settlement expansion. Now the argument is merely about how long Israel must promise to maintain that curb. Mitchell has told Netanyahu and Barak that the United States wants a commitment of a one-year freeze. Israel has agreed to suspend building on the settlements for only six months, at most. Israel wants to force the United States to compromise at less than a year to create a psychological advantage when the really tough bargaining begins.

An ex Australian prime minister of Jewish maternal decent encourages his country to support Obama's peace inititative.

The isolation of Hamas is impeding peace

www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-isolation-...810-efj0.html?page=3

....Australia could urge, as others have done, that Hamas be brought in from the cold. But do we have the courage? In doing so, we would be a real partner of the US contributing to peace in the Middle East and removing an important source and inspiration for fundamentalist terrorists.

Fear of criticism from the Jewish lobby in Australia has so far prevented Australian governments taking effective action. If we want to be a real ally to the US, if we want justice and peace, we have an opportunity.

Prepare to freeze

www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14398223

Israel's prime minister faces a difficult path as he prepares for a possible halt to new settlements

Is AIPAC Still the Chosen One?

For decades, AIPAC has dominated DC's Israel lobby. But a popular president and dissent within the advocacy ranks could lead to a showdown on Middle East policy.

www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/09/aipac-still-chosen-one

The New Israel Lobby

www.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/magazine/13JStreet-t.html?em

Resolve of West Bank Settlers May Have Limits

tinyurl.com/puhjaz

If a thing begins wrong, it always ends wrong.

Robster, your latest post on Netanhyahu's Russia visit has been moved to the more specific thread, "Netanyahu plays a Russian rope trick".

- aq

About 99% of the reporting in the media regarding the UN fact-finding mission is mostly hysteria and misinformation. The principal result of the UN human rights report results in what I have previously stated here:

www.atimes.net/The-Edge/Middle-East/1716...d/Page-3.html#172293

This is born out in several sources who generally see affairs far more clearly than the usually misinformed or delusional MSM.

Israel must now heal itself

www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/se...ael-goldstone-report

....Goldstone's report is clearly asking to be interpreted as a red flag regarding future behavior. The report makes a central theme of the ongoing impunity and lack of accountability of actions taken by Israel in the context of its occupation of the Palestinian territories: "The prolonged situation of impunity has created a justice crisis in the oPT that warrants action" (p543, item 1,755).

There is no military solution. Israel, in fact, negatively affects its own population's security by pursuing one, let alone what it does to the situation of the Palestinians. The endless and ever-more-entrenched occupation constitutes the greatest threat to Israel and its future. Reading this report powerfully brings home the fierce urgency of a political solution. Certainly the report's findings on human rights violations will have to be addressed, and it would be advisable for Israel to do so with its own investigation. I hope that any resolution that the UN security council may vote on in six months is one that approves an internationally sponsored peace plan for a viable and dignified two-state solution, and not one that sends the legal pursuit of Israel's actions to the international criminal court.

State on Goldstone Gaza report: "Deeply concerned"

tinyurl.com/njekbo

This is probably not quite as full-throated a condemnation of the Gaza commission's report as the Israeli government would have preferred, but would seem to serve to indicate that the Obama administration will not refrain from using its power at the UN to try to prevent additional action based on the report's recommendations from going forward in New York.

Past US administrations had unequivocally slammed and shot-down any and all UN actions regarding Israel in the past. Not this one. Note what State Department spokesman Ian Kelly had said in a press interview:

....We believe this report should be discussed within the Human Rights Council, and we look forward to participating in that discussion. We will approach discussions on the report keeping in mind the underlying causes of the tragic events in Gaza earlier this year....

Israelis aren't happy with Obama's response, because they have only succeeded in putting another means of leverage in Obama's tool kit should Israeli's persist in their insane intransigence over the two state solution. Both Rozen and Levy recognize the fatal degree to which the Israel relies exclusively on the

"good will and protection from Washington in the international diplomatic environment."

A relationship becoming more strained and difficult as team Obama pursues US national security interests in the Middle East.