Second, it has been a well-known strategy throughout history to transform internal political and social threats into external confrontation, thus getting rid of the internal threat. Debilitating sanctions or warlike conditions would furnish the ruling elite with the opportunity to silence the opposition by claiming it is working with the enemy.


agree, not so sure about 1 and 3

1 both sides will use it to justify their positions.

3. gets into some scary territory

The problem with sanctions is if the whole global community isn't on the same page sanctions regimes are ineffective. Apartheid South Africa had weathered sanctions starting in 1960 until the last holdout, the US, finally dropped half measures and got fully on board by the late 1980's. Once all safe harbors had been eliminated the end was no longer in doubt and only a matter of time. Actually, the end came quick because by 1994 Mandela was elected the first black president of S. Africa.

Case Studies in Sanctions and Terrorism
www.iie.com/research/topics/sanctions/southafrica.cfm

As of now the Russians and Chinese are dead set against imposing any further sanctions. Nor is the EU all hot and bothered over imposing more either. The Congress can pass feel good resolutions to mollify nagging lobbies or legislation forcing the president, but without total global compliance the only victims will be American corporations and their international partners. An interesting aspect of the S/A story is that business corporations, advocacy, religious, civil affairs and education groups lead the way first, laying the economic and political foundations upon which a sanctions regime would be the final and decisive blow, the coup de grace. Obviously, as regards Iran the west has very little to zero contact with Iranian institutions and society. Hydrocarbons are the only angle and the world needs that more than Iran. In other words, when it comes to leverage the Iranians have got a whole hell of a lot more than Congress, especially in these severely striated economic times.

The author Shahir is also building his premises upon wild ass guesses from the Israeli media, neocons and Congressional political shenanigans like Senator Evan Bayh's, who is owned lock, stock and barrel by the Israel Lobby. The Obama administration does not leak information like a sieve, so no one has a clue as to what actually went down after the high profile visit of administration big-wigs to the M/E, especially with Israel regarding Iran. I have read a lot of stuff like Shahir's from other diverse sources, but I have a substantial list of foreign policy blogs and sites I rely upon and none of them have uttered a peep. Take for instance what Shahir regards Hillary's remark as signaling "that Washington has unexpectedly stepped up its diplomatic and political approach to Iran."

Hillary: "The president [Barack Obama] ... said, look, we need to take stock of this in September. If there is a response, it needs to be on a fast track. We're not going to keep the window open forever."

Maybe I am missing something here, but it appears to me that the prez wants to blaze away on any breakthrough with the Iranians, which has been his policy all along. And as far as taking "stock" or waiting forever is concerned, isn't this what Obama told Netanyahu back in May when he came for a visit? Appears to me just another rephrasing of the same policy.

As for his 1st and 3rd points its obvious that further coercive attempts will only benefit hardliners and cause all Iranians to rally around the flag. As for what's floating around between Ahmadinejad's ears, I don't think Ahmadinejad knows either. And the Iranians certainly don't have to do something ignorant like blocking the Hormuz straits and start WW 3. They can stop screwing around with merely mastering the nuclear fuel enrichment cycle and start building a bonafide nuclear deterrent. Now that would really pour the coals up the a-hole tracts of some extraordinarily stupid people. But what will really hurt worse than that will be the dawning realization that all their blustering is just that, blustering. A nuclear armed Iran is a far greater strategic disaster to Israel than it is to the US, no matter how its sliced and diced. And as for the Arabs the US has already made clear we would guarantee their security under our nuclear umbrella and related defense technologies. That latter part has got the Israelis really smoking, because that eventuality puts paid to any and all coercive leverage Israelis currently have over the Arabs.

Administration bigwigs talk Iran

www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27020.html

It does help to read these articles carefully, unlike some who post them because the cover title justifies a posters nefarious claims. The meeting was political for the purposes of calming and/or countering Israeli/Likudnik and Zionist pressures against skittish Jewish/American leaders in the Democratic party. As for anything substantive on Iran:

None of this was terribly new, particularly to this very knowledgeable audience. (“Not much new,” one Iran hand said. “Just an overview of the policy.”) But the Obama administration is trying to explain its policy, strategy, thinking and timeline to this important audience.

This article, which is a fuller compilation of Laura Rozen's entries on her blog elucidating the complications regarding this geopolitical nut. But the real sweetener is about Netanyahu's secret meeting with Putin. The facts are Congressional posturing, domestic Likudnik/Zionist meddling in US affairs and meaningful sanctions are pipe dreams and Netanyahu knows it. The probable reason for the secrecy is he went to Moscow as a supplicant begging the Russians not to supply Iranians with SS 300 AA missiles. The secrecy and his evasiveness about it has pissed everyone in Israel off.

Netanyahu draws fire in Israel over secret trip

www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTR...irtualBrandChannel=0

China and most of the 3rd world are opposed to further sanctions. As for the EU they talk a good game, but their hearts aren't solidly behind policies that will do them more harm commercially than Iran. And as for Congress passing tough sanctions against countries doing business with Iran? Well, Lidudniks, Zionists and Israeli firsters may as well take gas! Sino/Iranian trade stands at over 16 billion and both are seeking to expand it, not limit it. The Forbes article articulates a number of reasons why the US, or even China for that matter aren't about to start a trade or sanctions war against each other over Iran.

China and U.S.: Tire-d of Fighting

www.forbes.com/2009/09/11/china-tires-ob...-commerce-trade.html

And Russia just loves the US tied up in knots in the Middle East. Its basically a stalemated game with the Russians the major beneficiaries as she plays like a fiddle the US, Israel and Iranians off against each other.

Russia Says Sanctions Against Iran Are Unlikely

www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/world/europe/...=1&th&emc=th

Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov on Thursday all but ruled out imposing new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, brushing aside growing Western concerns that Iran had made significant progress in recent months in a bid for nuclear weapons.

Iran nuclear proposal rejected as Russia dismisses sanctions
President Obama had hoped to pressure Iran by building international consensus on tougher sanctions.

features.csmonitor.com/globalnews/2009/0...dismisses-sanctions/

As the United States rejected a new proposal for talks presented by Iran this week, Russia has broken ranks sharply with Washington, warning that it will not support the US call for tougher sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Russia Says No to Iran Nuclear Sanctions

online.wsj.com/article/SB125260385206300253.html

The development also appeared a blow to hopes that the Obama administration's "reset" of relations with Russia would lead to Moscow supporting a top U.S. foreign-policy priority.

The only game Obama hasn't tried is a legitimate 'grand bargain' with the Iranians. A policy he has alluded to but fallen far short to date. Military action is a dead letter. Dialog goes only so far and everything else is failing, will continue to fail and in the end be the principle factors driving the Iranians to build the bomb. The only reason they haven't to date is merely because of intent, not because of threats from Israel or the US. But that state of affairs within Iran will not last forever. Israel in the prospect will again be humiliated, because even in the absence of SS 300 AA missiles it is impotent to stop the Iranians from developing the bomb. The US is simply smart enough to know force can't prevent it and will acquiesce to a nuclear armed Iran. Just like India and Pakistan.

National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Iranian_O...Distribution_Company

In 2007, Iranian Oil Minister Vaziri-Hamaneh noted that the country's oil refining industry needs a $15 billion investment for its development. He also noted that construction of Hormuz refinery in Bandar Abbas city and Abadan city in Khuzestan, each with a daily capacity of 300,000 and 180,000 barrels (29,000 m3), respectively and a gas condensate plant in Bandar Abbas with a capacity of 360,000 barrels per day (57,000 m³/d) are among Iran's new projects. [4]

Going forward, FACTS reports that Iran will complete construction of these three 120,000 bbl/d (19,000 m³/d) condensate splitters by 2009 (360,000 barrels per day in total). The facilities will produce an estimated 200,000 bbl/d (32,000 m³/d) of gasoline. Along with other projects to extend capacity at Arak, Abadan and Isfahan refineries, it is possible that Iran will cease being a gasoline importer by 2010 and will become a net exporter by 2013.[5]

In December 2008, Iran announced its plans to construct seven oil refineries at a cost of $27 billion by 2013. The production capacity of the country in gasoline and gas-oil will increase by 1.9 and 1.8 million liters per day respectively.[6]

Khuzestan refinery, The Persian Gulf Star refinery, Shahriar refinery, Anahita refinery, Hormoz refinery, Caspian refinery and Pars refinery are the seven planned refineries, the Mehr news agency reported. When these refineries are complete, the nation's refining capacity of crude oil and gas condensates will be raised by 1,560,000 barrels while 110 million liters will be added to its gasoline production.[7]

Even John Bolton, about as whacked-out a personality can get without being committed to an insane asylum knows this talk about sanctions and targeting Iran's refined petroleum products is brainless gibberish. Though he would prefer to nuke Iran, he recognizes these current weak-kneed, half-assed sanctions proposed by congressmen, Zionists and Israeli firsters as worthless bluster that will result in a nuclear Iran.

Sanctions Won't Work Against Iran
The mullahs are addressing their vulnerability to a gasoline shortage

tinyurl.com/mmabo2

For Washington, the question should not be whether "strict sanctions" will cause some economic harm despite Iran's multifarious, accelerating efforts to mitigate them. Instead, we must ask whether that harm will be sufficient to dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons. Objectively, there is no reason to believe that it will.

Adopting tougher economic sanctions is simply another detour away from hard decisions on whether to accept a nuclear Iran or support using force to prevent it.

And should sanctions be imposed the Iranians will still manage to import their domestic needs in the short term until their refineries come on line.

Iran, Venezuela sign 3 energy MoUs

www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=202809

Based on an agreement between the two sides, Tehran will import gasoline from Caracas if the West imposes sanction on Iran, Mirkazemi said here on Monday.

[b]Robster

[quote]

Based on an agreement between the two sides, Tehran will import gasoline from Caracas if the West imposes sanction on Iran, Mirkazemi said here on Monday.

Eh!

AUStralia does not import a drop of oil from VENezuela not as a snub to CHAvez but because of cost versus benefit. IT Makes no logistical sense for us to import a bulk commodity from such a distance as there are ample sources of better quality petrolium much closer.

IRAN and VENezuela are almost as far apart in sea distance as two erstwile trading partners can get. WHilst probably making political sense for Chavez (One in the eye for the UNIted States) I fail to see a single benefit that Venezuela gets.

THInk about it! Apart from the danger of explosion en-route the only way that petrol (gasoline) could be delivered from Venezuela to IRAN in more than token quantitys would be with the aid of heavy subsidies. Chavez would need to sell it at or below cost.

I believe that he is already squandering the benefits of Venezuela's oil legacy by such antics as selling at or below cost to favoured allies like Castro's Cuba. Such policies have the effect of short changing the VENEzuelan public. CHavez is after all only the temporary steward/trustee over the oil bounty, not the owner. The policies of his regime should be to ensure that VENEzuela gets the best possible return - thats Venezuela, not CHAVez..

Another nail in Venezuela's coffin!

MonsoonWind

Built to Spill

tinyurl.com/raubfq

This isn't about anyone's version or understanding regarding economics. Its about geo-politics and the nonsensical notions reigning in the US congress among the bought and sold whores of the Israeli Lobby and Likudnik Israel, who are attempting to sanction Iranian importation of a strategic resource. An embargo of refined petroleum products like gasoline is an act of war against Iran, and the Iranians will pursue any source of refined petroleum products anywhere in the world, including Venezuela no matter the cost/benefit analysis. In the prospect of an effective sanction/embargo the Iranians:

First, Iran would almost certainly begin industrial scale efforts to import (read: smuggle) petrol from wherever it can; with their high subsidies on petrol, which keep consumer prices artificially low, GCC states will be the most likely targets. The effects might be felt most severely in Oman, where petrol is cheaper than bottled water, and in the UAE; both countries maintain patterns of commerce with Iran that date back centuries. Filling the fuel needs of 65 million Iranians - while taking advantage of subsidies intended for domestic consumers - will stretch GCC government coffers, producing a range of political and economic stresses that could force cuts in social spending or energy investment.

This cross-Gulf smuggling trade will start slowly at first - petrol-filled Coca-Cola bottles thrown into a dhow's shipping crate - but it will quickly become sophisticated and institutionalized. In Iran, financial and political gains will accrue to the most efficient smugglers. American statements have long identified the Revolutionary Guard as key players in sanctions-busting trade in all types of goods, not just those related to Iran's nuclear programme. The paramilitary group has experience in operating aircraft and ships, setting up front companies and other related activities - positioning them to move easily into the petrol trade if sanctions are passed. Since much of the smuggled petrol will be coming across the Gulf, the Guards will seek to secure shipping in the waterway and might try to expand networks inside Gulf States themselves.

Most of the congressional whores in Congress who are pushing sanctions are responding to intense political pressure and threats, not what is in the best interests of the US or global peace. The Obama administration on the other hand appears to be maneuvering cautiously between the extremes, like an Odysseus navigating between Scylla and Charybdis. Most of those brainless fools in Congress don't realize their antics could lead to war, or praying like hell Obama can save them and the country from their political cowardice and surrender of legislative responsibilities. Some however, do know exactly what they are doing in league with neocons, Likudnik's and Israeli firsters. These idiots behind various masks want war and believe sanctions can accomplish it, but more importantly want the US to wage it. They are the same @#$%-up artists who gave us Afghanistan and Iraq.

It is not clear exactly how the sanctions would be implemented; the current draft legislation seems to provide for financial penalties for individuals and companies, while some critics have described it as a "blockade," giving the implication of military enforcement. Either way, taking material steps to cut off petrol, the lifeblood of a state's economy, is an act of war. States respond to such acts in fundamentally unpredictable ways, but history tells us that wars tend to escalate, last longer and cost more lives than participants expected at the outset.

As it stands, the leaders of Russia, China and most of the global community realize fully what's going on and oppose sanctions against Iran, whether for the right or their own nefarious reasons making any US sanctions/embargo a joke right from the get go. This also doesn't take into consideration all the other manifold difficulties a severe sanctions/embargo must overcome to be effective. The GPF report spells them all out and informs Iran has many sources and means in securing refined petroleum products.

Its also highly likely the Obama White House would circumvent and/or water down any imbecilities legislated out of the Congress, making damn certain the appropriate clauses are enacted giving the executive the broadest scope and discretion in executing the policy, averting or minimizing the massive harm misguided and often ignorant Congressional legislation can cause.

The Iranians are also a lot smarter than Saddam Hussein or the Taliban. No matter how provoked, they will not be played like suckers by 3rd rate 'stooge hall show' artists into throwing the first punch. Besides being victimized themselves they also have ring-side seats observing these circus acts for decades and know full well how this game of charades is played.

The sanctions gambit is the last villainous plot by the above usual suspects for the purposes of starting a war. When the slimy, little liars fail in perpetrating their vile desires the only means left will be naked, unambiguous aggression in the full light of day. That means the Israeli's will have to attack Iran on their own, without US support or acquiescence. Two reasons that's not going to happen. Israelis are cowards and know they haven't the means to successfully accomplish their goals. If they can't trick America, or sap the Iranians, the game to all intents and purposes is done and Iran has won.

The probable outcome of these worthless, senseless games is the Iranians will finally decide having a nuclear deterrent is the only responsible answer to these endless threats against their regime and people. These perpetrated idiocies are guaranteeing Iran will become a nuclear hegemon in the region checkmating Israeli hegemony to disadvantage and irrelevance, the very outcome the usual suspects fear and dread the most.

For the US these are not net losses and can easily be adjusted to. The loss to the US is if normalized relations cannot be attained with Iran due to these stupidities, and/or the Iranians drift eastward into deeper geo-strategic security and economic relations with the East to the exclusion of the West. In the 'great game' of the 21st century that would be a far greater blow to the US and EU than the loss of Israel.

U.S., allies accept Iran offer of talks, as Russia and China say no sanctions for now (UPDATED)

www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/

Big powers seek Iran arms talks

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f213c0bc-9f34-11de-8013-00144feabdc0.html

Iran invites Brazil to team up in drive for nuclear disarmament

tinyurl.com/ns8qx2

Zionists, Likudniks and Israeli firsters can take September deadlines and shove them high up their a-holes as I have long asserted.

The US of A is in a state of 'retrenchment' and Obama's foreign policies are all about engagement with the 'evil doers' of the axis of evil, not confrontation, sanctions, embargoes or war.

Whatever anyone presumes or believes about US policy, irrelevant mutterings by politicians or imbecile, legislative antics going on in the US congress, Obama's actual geo-strategic initiatives and goals are all about normalization and stability in the Middle East, which is a major concern of all the other greater and lesser powers on earth.

The US just might resolve its differences with Iran before it finalizes a settlement on the Israeli/Palestinian issue, whether that's a two-state or one-state affair. An interesting twist regarding that issue is Jimmy Carter's recent visit and discussions with Palestinian leaders about a one-state solution.

Carter: Palestinians mull one state

english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/20...997151022233148.html

If the two-state outcome is in fact dead, than Israelis and their brainless allies have ass-@#$%-ed themselves out of existence. The apartheid, Hitlerian state Israel would have to become to accomplish it will not last long. Not even a minimal Jewish home in Palestine is possible under a one-state actuality.

Russia, China, Iran redraw energy map
By M K Bhadrakumar

www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LA08Ag01.html

The inauguration of the Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran pipeline on Wednesday connecting Iran's northern Caspian region with Turkmenistan's vast gas field may go unnoticed amid the Western media cacophony that it is "apocalypse now" for the Islamic regime in Tehran.

The event sends strong messages for regional security. Within the space of three weeks, Turkmenistan has committed its entire gas exports to China, Russia and Iran. It has no urgent need of the pipelines that the United States and the European Union have been advancing. Are we hearing the faint notes of a Russia-China-Iran symphony?

Nothing more decisively crushes the skull-@#$%-ed, nonsensical, phony notions of an Obama/Ross foreign policy than the energy rich, 21st century great game of Eurasian oil and gas. Bhadrakumar ably spells out why sanctions, carrots & sticks, threats or any form of coercion against Iran by the west and/or the US is doomed to fail.

IRAN, THE COMPETITION OVER EURASIAN NATURAL GAS, AND THE REVIVAL OF CLASSICAL DIPLOMACY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

www.raceforiran.com/iran-the-competition...-in-the-21st-century

More broadly, what all this reflects is the strategic impact of the relative decline in U.S. power and influence across the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and Central Asia. This trend is creating new “optionality” for major energy producers in these critical regions—Russia, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and, of course, the Islamic Republic of Iran. It also reinforces Turkey’s identification and consolidation of new foreign policy options beyond its established ties to the United States and Europe.

In such an environment, what the United States needs to do is to start practicing what used to be described as classical diplomacy, rooted in the notion of the “balance of power”. (We are grateful to Chas Freeman for sharing this insight with us.) Certainly, other important players–Russia, Turkey, Iran, etc.,–are doing so. But the Obama Administration—like the George W. Bush Administration before it—seems stuck in a mindset that sees U.S. foreign policy as, in effect, a tool of imperial administration. If President Obama persists in this course, U.S. interests on multiple fronts are at risk of serious damage over the course of his presidency.

The above underlined words of genius in a nutshell describe the US dilemma. US elites are still stuck in that never-never fantasy-land of US exceptionalism and unipolarity (in truth, it never was). They have yet to fully synthesize all the parts into a whole of the enormity of the national disasters the Bush years have inflicted upon the US.

If the Obama administration is going to accomplish anything for US interests in the most important region on the planet, team Obama must break out of the old paradigms of a dead world view that no longer exits. Its a multi-polar world order ruled by "classical diplomacy," which recognizes the constraints of a global order of competing great and lesser regional hegemons.