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February 9, 2010
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The Edge ATol Discussion by Region South Asia
Open for debate: Options in Afghanistan (1 viewing) (1) Guest
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TOPIC: Open for debate: Options in Afghanistan
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#172630
Re:Open for debate: Options in Afghanistan 3 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 5  
what does it have to do with Afghanistan?

Absolutely nothing. Military history is cursed with 5th rate scholars, ignorant journalists and idiots seeking any weak justification for their views.

Talk about anachronisms galore. Just considering one facet of the 15th century, cultural & social differences alone between then and now makes the whole exercise of seeking similarities with modern, counter insurgency tactics and strategy an exercise in futility.

This isn't saying their aren't parallels in history. The historical record properly understood can provide insights into modern times and problems. Agincourt however, and the latter years of the Hundred Years Wars (plural!!!) isn't one of them. And to compare such to Afghanistan no matter how remotely is a dangerous suggestion properly excised from the 2006 manual on US counterinsurgency.
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#172631
Re:Open for debate: Options in Afghanistan 3 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 2  
Not unexpectedly, Robster fails to consider the information contained in the article, choosing instead to favor us with his uninformed blather regarding military history. Had he read the piece with any degree of perception, he would have discovered that there are competent revisionist historians engaged in activities unrelated to his personal field of expertise (rewrites of modern history absolving militant Islam from its central roll in terrorism worldwide).

So, I read with interest the various approaches to understanding Agincourt and the author's thoughts on Afghanistan, sans 'ster's puerile prattle on the subject.
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#172646
Re:Open for debate: Options in Afghanistan 3 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 5  
The reality facing the US in Afghanistan and Iraq is not some brainless idiocy hatched in the minds of racists and religious bigots who regard Islam as a global threat.

Afghanistan was never a state in any formal sense of the word. The closest the country ever came to an organizing principle was as a kingdom in the latter 18th century. Before that it was just a region crisscrossed by many races, tribes and peoples locked in endless violence and on a few rare occasions ruled by themselves. The normative state of affairs was to be ruled by foreigners through much of known history.

The US is not facing an insurgency or peoples war of liberation in the classic sense in Afghanistan. Its a stateless region that has been afflicted with nonstop chaos and violence since the overthrow of the Afghan kingdom in 1973. The reign of King Mohammad Zahir Shah from 1933 to 1973 is regarded the longest period of stability in Afghanistan's history, a name by the way which wasn't adopted until the Afghan constitution of 1923.

Also way overrated is the so called vaunted prowess of Afghan resistance to foreign domination. Its more myth than reality. Such successes can be counted on the fingers of one hand compared to the multitude of conquests by neighbors and empires, much of it of long dominion and the principal civilizing influence upon the natives. Alexander the Great is often depicted as being defeated by Pashtuns or Afghans, neither of which existed at the time. And Alexander's empire never suffered insurrection simply because it didn't live long enough to endure it. The empire was barely 10 years old and died with its creator in 323 BC.

The only reasons the USSR failed in Afghanistan was because it wasn't ruled by a killer like Stalin. Communism was self-destructing from within and the Soviet regime was destroying its economy and their power by competing in a futile arms race with the US of A in the 1980's. What cinched Soviet defeat by the Mujaheddin was the massive support in aid, money, arms and volunteers from the Muslim world, principally from Saudi Arabia and channeled through Pakistan's ISI. The US supported this effort covertly and the architect of that game was the former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski under the Carter regime. As it happens and is usually the case, everyone else got the kudos and movie credits.

And should anyone presume I believe the 2006, COIN FM 3-24 Field Manual on Counterinsurgency is the last word on the topic, they are gravely mistaken. The field manual, like America is a work in progress and though a good start the manual still contains a lot of 20th century, post WW II flap-doodle that doesn't work and often leads to defeat.

Counterinsurgency doctrine and the surge did not make the grade in Iraq. The new lie. It was the age old diplomacy of politics, money and making deals that resulted in the Sons of Iraq and other "awakening movements," which put paid to the worst of an insurgency that still sputters along today. These techniques have some but limited utility in Afghanistan.

Excluding a-historical reams of - 'shit for brains' - in the field manual is at least one of the notable accomplishments of the authors who composed the manual. There are flaws enough without adding unrelated and superfluous historical analysis to what is already a very complex, emerging form of 21st century warfare no one has a handle on as yet, including the US of A, though we have the most experience than anyone else to date.

Nor is the US by any stretch of the imagination currently facing anything similar to what the Soviets suffered in that country. But if we keep chasing after the counter-insurgency fairy-tale proffered by McChrystal & co we won't be long in suffering it. I have previously posted here:

www.atimes.net/The-Edge/South-Asia/17210...hanistan.html#172111

here:

www.atimes.net/The-Edge/South-Asia/17210...hanistan.html#172113

and here:

www.atimes.net/The-Edge/South-Asia/17210...hanistan.html#172124

Some opinions and more on what the US should be doing in Afghanistan. The following is a recent interview of Zbigniew Brzezinski by Josh Rushing on Aljazeera:

english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009...910176183939643.html

Its not at all coincidental that Obama is taking his time in the policy making process to the great angst of McChrystal and Petraeus, whom Republicans are feverishly hoping will be their standard bearer in 2012. They will be even less happy when the policy opted proves more constrained and limited following the far wiser advise of Brzezinski, Zinni, North, Scowcroft and others who are fervently hated by neocons, Likudniks, Zionists and Israeli firsters, the penultimate @#$-up artists of the 21st century.
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#172648
Re:Open for debate: Options in Afghanistan 3 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 2  
Quite in line with his love for occupying foreign lands to achieve his desired foreign policy objectives (destruction of Israel, coddling of Islamic terrorists, useless deaths of American military personnel, etc,), Robster presents us with his list of favorite American imperialists. In the background we can hear "the sound of arms, and the tramp of feet," as 'ster urges on the warmongers and praises US diplomats who choose to kiss Karzai ass.

Why is it that I find 'ster's take on history inferior? Could it be that he has his facts wrong? Could it be that he resents the qualified scholarship of his intellectual superiors? Gosh, so many reasons, and so little time.
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#172658
Re: Options in Afghanistan - a Taliban victory 3 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 4  
TWO very interesting items in ATol today:

www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KJ30Ag01.html

The Central Asians comprehend what is going on. They know that while the US keeps Russia out, NATO will never have the capacity to deploy in Afghanistan at the level of the Red Army in the 1980s. They also know that raising an Afghan army - "Afghanization" - is vacuous talk

Indeed, it reminds me of the "Vietnamisation" of the VIetnam WAR after the Tet offensive (ie. leave South Vietnam holding the bag) - when the US was desperately looking for a face-saving way to dump SOuth VIetman and withdraw from a war it was could not win.

AND:

www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KJ30Df05.html

Fresh revelations of the Hamid Karzai government's opium trade links and the alleged involvement of the Central Intelligence Agency render the United States role in Afghanistan more murky and contradictory. With all the attention on General Stanley McChrystal's troop increase demand, historical perspective has been lost. We are back in Ngo Dinh Diem's Saigon of 1963.

There is an old British diplomatic saying, ''The United States will always do the right thing, after it's tried all its other options.''

THE Taliban have already won!
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#172659
Setup for failure 3 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 2  
Yes, M'wind, very interesting, and there was a good one on US/Pakistan diplomacy -

www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KJ30Df04.html

There was a lot of surprise going around when President Obama selected Ms. Clinton as Secretary of State. But on reflection, many considered it to be a stroke of genius. It pacified his political rivals - the Clintons - and opened the way for Obama to surround himself with foreign policy "czars" - e.g. Ross, Holbrooke, and Mitchell - the latter two ostensibly under Clinton's wing.

Then we had the President's calculated efforts to open talks with Islamic leadership in the ME/South Asia region. Clinton wisely deferred to Mitchell in the Israel/Palestine quagmire; Mitchell has done all he could, but has only reaped the rotten grain of Arab intransigence. The failure of talks with the devious Persians also cannot be pinned on her. The Iraqi debacle was inherited - only a total bailout by US ground forces will serve US interests there.

Now we have Af/Pak. Our supposed "allies" in Afghanistan are a bunch of criminals. Pakistanis are happy to sop up billions in US aid while continuing to despise America. The distinguished Ambassador Holbrooke made the obligatory calls, but became disgusted with the slimy prevaricating Muslim leadership he faced. There is no reasoning with barbarians.

Enter Sec. Clinton, with Senator Kerry in tow. They take turns kissing Karzai's ass. There are pleas for peace. Meanwhile, the inexorable advance of fundamentalist Islam spreads its dark shadow over the region. The next Clintonian surprise?
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#172661
Re:Setup for failure 3 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 4  
Jim the Moron wrote:


Now we have Af/Pak. Our supposed "allies" in Afghanistan are a bunch of criminals. Pakistanis are happy to sop up billions in US aid while continuing to despise America. The distinguished Ambassador Holbrooke made the obligatory calls, but became disgusted with the slimy prevaricating Muslim leadership he faced. There is no reasoning with barbarians.

Enter Sec. Clinton, with Senator Kerry in tow. They take turns kissing Karzai's ass. There are pleas for peace. Meanwhile, the inexorable advance of fundamentalist Islam spreads its dark shadow over the region. The next Clintonian surprise?



A German friend once told me that Konrad Adanuer, the founder of the Federal Republic of Germany once remarked "if you cannot bring yourself to swallow 6 or 7 live toads first thing in the morning on an empty stomach, don't go into politics". ^THE experience of having to deal with the likes of the Af/PAk leadership must be even worse than that. I Could not do it.

RE. KArzai and ass kissing. Considering how much the regime Karzai presides over is dependent of US support, I would have thought that if anything it would have been the reverse?
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#172668
The ostrich syndrome 3 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 2  
www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1256...t/JPArticle/ShowFull

Memo to Mr. Bush - you're not President any longer, so you are free to pull your head out of the sand.

"an election dispute that has badly tarnished the Afghan government's credibility" - did it ever have "credibility" to tarnish?

"a peaceful, democratic Afghanistan is vital to the region" - if so, "the region" is well on its way of going to hell in a handbasket.

Sorry, Mr Bush, it's time to shake the sand out of your eyes. There are two possibilities:

-Retain Americans in A'stan in the futile hope that they can prevent Afghans from killing each other. Result - more Americans and Afghans die.

-Withdraw all American forces. Result - more Afghans die.

"If the Taliban and al-Qaida and their extremist allies were allowed to take over Afghanistan again, they would have a safe haven and the Afghan people, particularly the Afghan women, would face a return to a brutal tyranny."

So, Mr. Bush, what you got against fundamentalist Islam? Your pals in Saudi Arabia and other oil-besotted Muslim entities don't treat their womenfolk good, neither. And you couldn't do a damn thing about it, and there ain't nothing President Obama can do about it. Islam will do as it pleases, regardless of how many Americans are killed in Muslim countries. So, you have our permission to stick your head back in the sand.
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Last Edit: 2009/10/31 09:37 By Jim the Moron.
 
 
#172678
Re:Open for debate: Options in Afghanistan 3 Months, 1 Week ago Karma: 2  
US goofs the Afghan election - www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KK03Df04.html

We are now getting word that Karzai has been declared the victor, and the US is offering up its congratulations. And well it should, after Clinton's and Kerry's obsequious prostrations last week.

Points presented by Bhadrakumar:

-Karzai "has turned the table squarely on the Western powers."

-The NY Times portrayed Wali Karzai (bro of President Karzai) as a drug trafficker. Mudslinging.

-Foreign troops in Afghanistan are involved in drug trafficking.

-Western powers will have to "learn to perform - as long as their soldiers are deployed in Afghanistan - the way Karzai wants."

-Maybe the US can trot out GW Bush to "talk things over with Karzai. They were pals . . ."

Can we tolerate the continued loss of American lives to bolster the likes of Karzai? We note with approval that "special AfPak representative Richard Holbrooke has become persona non grata in Kabul." At least one American diplomat had the guts to stand up to the slimeball Karzai. Total withdrawal of all US forces from Afghanistan is in order. Let Karzai's government stew in its own juices.
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#172776
But whose counting? 2 Months, 4 Weeks ago Karma: 2  
www.nytimes.com/2009/11/11/world/asia/11policy.html?_r=1&hp
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