CHAN AKYA

March 12, 2010

"Do not be very upright in your dealings for you would see by going to the forest that straight trees are cut down while crooked ones are left standing." - Chanakya (350-275 BC)

For more on the original Chanakya, the inventor of skullduggery, click here.

Running out of road

China, of all countries the best placed to mitigate an asset bubble, appears the most concerned about the impact of government stimulus packages. Elsewhere, the assumptions underlying hopes of better times ahead look all too flawed.

(Sep 28, '09)

Moral hazard is back

There is clearly a class of people who do not face the full force of the law because of who they happen to be. The same stunning level of corruption is also true for banks, bailouts and financial systems. This will be the unsavory legacy of the Lehman Brothers aftermath.

(Sep 18, '09)

The Surreal Symphony

World governments have succeeded in postponing the reckoning for leverage and asset prices, not to mention global real incomes, without any prospects of avoiding a repeat of the very circumstances that led to the current financial crisis. If this were a fairy tale, it would be both surreal and have a nasty ending. It is not, so we are just left to ponder the latter ...

(Sep 11, '09)

We are all Japanese now

The end of capitalism as the system du jour will happen not with a bang but with a whimper. Lower growth, higher debt and more bank failures will feature in the distant future; but for now, many people will celebrate the death of laissez faire and the advent of Japanese capitalism in its place.

(Sep 04, '09)

Prada to Pravda

European luxury brands championed the consumerism of the US and European countries that led to the global financial crisis; that situation is now being replaced by a pseudo-reality straight from the pages of old Soviet newspapers. Now, governments dictate market movements even as they slant news coverage to suit specific requirements. Chan Akya would tell people to buy gold, but perhaps even that will be subject to price manipulation over the near term.

(Aug 28, '09)

BOOKS: Crisis in hindsight

As the storm recedes, at least for a while, from the worst financial crisis since World War II, bookshelves are littered with accounts claiming insight into how and why it happened, if not why so few saw it coming. Whether you opt for the views of PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian, famed investor George Soros or the insightful but relatively obscure Thomas E Woods - choose with care. Not all are what they seem, as with ex-bond salesman Michael Lewis.

(Aug 14, '09)

Clunkers for cash

The parallels between the bailouts of General Motors and the general US consumer are striking. Leaving the main problem unaddressed and granting special competitive privileges to a select few, the bailouts will end up distorting the automotive industry as well as the general economy.

(Aug 07, '09)

Faith-based investing

Continued gains in the world's stock markets have attracted numerous explanations in harness with poor analytical skills, self-contradicting indicators and a lack of basic math. There is only one reason for rising market values for risk assets - and therein lies the path, once more, to economic ruin.

(Aug 04, '09)

Goldman's Atlas shrug

No sooner than a Wall Street firm had announced bumper earnings than all the communists squirm out of the woodwork to criticize them for "profiteering", whatever that means. It is very much the job of capitalists to make money off the idiocy of communists and socialists, and given the rich pickings across the world, more are likely to follow Goldman Sachs principles than those of communists in government.

(Jul 20, '09)

Krugman best taken in reverse

It stands to reason that the cheerleader-in-chief of the Keynesian brigade should also prove to be the most self-contradicting reverse indicator of true economic direction or workable economic policies. All that said, Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman of the New York Times is the commentator for everyone to peruse and understand; for it is in doing the opposite of whatever he recommends that salvation could arise.

(Jul 13, '09)

Raining on the Blue Fox

The shine has started wearing off the "Green Shoots" story that has propped up stock markets and helped various countries pretend that further developments aren't imminent. As various US states approach different stages of bankruptcy, the time for governments to change policies is dawning.

(Jul 07, '09)

The Jackson factor

Global investors can find in the debt and drugs-fueled tragedy that marked Michael Jackson's final years a parallel to the current goings-on in stock markets. Stimulus funds sourced from government debt are leaking into the stock markets while antidepressants may be helping people ignore rising valuation risks.

(Jun 30, '09)

BRIC plotters stage a farce

The inaugural "BRIC" summit of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China ended in farce, as can only be expected when four disparate economies attempt to cobble together an alliance based on ephemeral rather than sustainable competitive advantages. The motley crew, instead of plotting the downfall of Julius Caesar, merely ended up begging for more, like Oliver Twist.

(Jun 22, '09)

Principal over principle

The very moral fiber of Anglo-Saxon countries appears to have come under threat in response to the ongoing financial crisis. Be it the nationalization of vast swathes of US industry, the expenses scandal in Britain or the attacks on Indian students in Australia, the very ugly side of these societies has been pushed into plain view.

(Jun 08, '09)

Till debt do us part

Getting out from under the weight of debt is a hard business, not the stuff of magic wands some in the financial media seem to want it to be. With some governments adding to the confusion amid both creditors and debtors, today's recession is likely to become a global depression before individuals and capitalists, not least those in China and Brazil, once more take charge of their destiny.

(Jun 01, '09)

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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
quark
(Mar 11, '10)
How do you figure out the ROI on infrastructure? China is building infrastructure and the multiplier affect can be compared to a similar multiplier in US in the 50/60's an...
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
MonsoonWind
(Mar 11, '10)
Chan Akya wrote: Permanent Advantage explained - did I extrapolate much? Actually no. You need to travel around Asia to see what I have seen, and enjoy what I ...
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
Chan Akya
(Mar 11, '10)
Not at all .. but the point is that an empty 7 lane superhighway in China has a tendency to fill up over 3 years and within 5 years they are soon talking about the need fo...
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
Michael
(Mar 11, '10)
Read full post/respond
THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
Michael
(Mar 11, '10)
so your telling me that its actually full then?
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
Chan Akya
(Mar 11, '10)
Michael - actually that is not true at all. The 7-lane superhighway is not a luxury when you have a city of 30 million threatening to explode to 50 million on the one end ...
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
Michael
(Mar 11, '10)
enjoy a 7 lane superhighway to your factor? and ROI of that highway? How does China/India avoid the infrastructure debt trap? No one needs 7 lanes to drive in. Wi...
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
Chan Akya
(Mar 11, '10)
Permanent Advantage explained - the main factors that augur a permanent advantage are the possibility that one side will *ALWAYS* remain better than the other .. in ot...
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
Michael
(Mar 11, '10)
2. Could this Asian advantage become permanent? It's possible, if not probable............... My question at this point is given the problems in Europe and the US, what...
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THREAD: Re:More Denial by CA...
DrCore
(Mar 10, '10)
Michael wrote: how do you tell if a newbie has their own axe to grind and will try and hijack a discussion and tailor it to their paticular agenda? I have my own axe...
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Running out of road

Moral hazard is back

The Surreal Symphony

We are all Japanese now

Prada to Pravda

BOOKS: Crisis in hindsight

Clunkers for cash

Faith-based investing

Goldman's Atlas shrug

Krugman best taken in reverse

Raining on the Blue Fox

The Jackson factor

BRIC plotters stage a farce

Principal over principle

Till debt do us part

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