Recent relative steadiness in the oil market, a situation that suits suppliers and end users, indicates an unstable equilibrium that is of little benefit to trading intermediaries, particularly investment banks that thrive on volatility and opacity. When volatility returns, fingers will again point at "speculators" - while the real culprits lie elsewhere.
The bright future once forecast for Gazprom, Russia's gas monopoly, is starting to look less substantial as profits decline and growth in global supply of gas outpaces demand. No less worrying for the company is Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's recent call for an end to the economy's heavy reliance on hydrocarbon sales.
The agreement by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Turkmenistan's Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov to resume gas trade between the two countries will bring relief to Turkmenistan's treasury. It also underlines Russia's diminished role in the affairs of its Central Asian neighbor.
The inauguration by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of an oil export route from the Russian far east port of Kozmino, east of Vladivostok, will allow intensive development of oil production in eastern Siberia and help to drive Russia's oil sales to China.
The arrival of China in Central Asia as a key player in the development of that region's energy resources confirms amid the disorder of the past decade-and-a-half a pattern that may help to gauge how the present nexus of power partnerships may continue.
Years of dependence on the Middle East for oil may be coming to an end for Japan as it looks to reserves of methane hydrate below the seabed for future energy supplies. It sounds a long shot, but investors in newly listed Japan Drilling believe otherwise.
Moscow insists that the Turkmenistan-China pipeline is not of concern to Russia, which also looks to the Central Asian country for energy supplies. Yet the speed with which the pipeline was agreed to and built contrasts strongly with the Kremlin's labored efforts to do deals with Beijing and its own negotiations with the Turkmen leadership.
Russia and China were the big winners in the latest auction of Iraq's oil rights, as was the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki; United States companies were conspicuous by their absence. If the oil starts to flow as now promised, the next few years should see the rise of a relatively wealthy, Shi'ite-controlled Iraq, friendly with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Does this make Maliki the new Saddam Hussein?
The opening of a 1,833-kilometer pipeline from Turkmenistan to China this week ends Russia's grip on the Central Asian country's natural-gas exports. Backers of the proposed Nabucco pipeline to Europe will also gain heart from the success of the Turkmen-Chinese project.
The impression that the West would renew its dominance of the Iraqi oil extraction industry has been shattered with the latest auction of oil rights, with Russia's Lukoil leading the winning bids. Other successful parties include interests from as far afield as Malaysia and Angola.
The decision by Uzbekistan to officially quit the Central Asia power system affects all countries in the region, particularly Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The move also brings its own domestic problems, notably that of providing sufficient power during peak demand.
Azerbaijan is casting around for more export routes for its gas, while bogged down in talks on terms to supply gas for use in and transit through Turkey. An agreement with Bulgaria poses ambitious technical challenges, while Iran appears to have no upper limit in its potential requirements.
China Longyuan Power Group, its US$2.3 billion share offering in Hong Kong attracting strong demand, is taking full advantage of the fair wind blowing at the backs of green-energy producers. With international alternative-energy cooperation increasing, other outfits are also trying to cash in, one way or another, on climate concerns.
Russia has made clear that the Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines will not be used to divert gas from Ukraine's transit pipelines to Europe, a change of stance that will be welcomed by Moscow-friendly parties in Ukraine before January's presidential election campaign.
The cancelation of a tender giving a Russian company the right to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant risks alienating the government in Moscow. The alternative, however, could have given too much power of a different kind to Russia, on which Turkey already depends for much of its energy supplies.
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