Financial markets/All

August 1, 2010

India recovers, then falters

The weak monsoon in India, which threatens agricultural output, figures large in accounts of recent stock-market declines, overlooking weaknesses in the government's budget, among other factors. On the plus side, resilient internal demand will stand the country in good stead.

- Robert M Cutler (Aug 12, '09)

Credit still at the wheel

After the credit boom and bust, a foreclosure auction encapsulates capitalism's power of creative destruction and a return to its first principles - you buy something, you pay for it, in cash. Yet lurking not far away is the brute pain of eviction - and the driving need, still, for dodgy credit.

- Julian Delasantellis (Aug 11, '09)

THE BEAR'S LAIR

Biological tweak to Adam Smith

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex has been around a lot longer than credit default swaps, subprime mortgages and even Alan Greenspan - and may have played as big a role as these in the present financial crisis. If we were more aware of our biological demands and responses, we could make our actions more economically rational.

- Martin Hutchinson (Aug 11, '09)

MARKET RAP

Catching breath

Recent market rallies are faltering, with Japanese trade suggesting it is time to take a breather after the powerful gains in Tokyo over the past month, and even the stellar benchmark Shanghai index is showing signs of exhaustion.

- Robert M Cutler (Aug 07, '09)

English justice versus Rusal

Britain's Court of Appeal has ruled that Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska should answer in London claims that he improperly took a 20% stake in his country's monopoly aluminum producer. The stakes are vast, not counting the future of US$13 billion in bank debts hanging also in the balance. A revolution in Russian corporate and shareholder accountability has begun.

- John Helmer (Aug 03, '09)

CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN

Bubble hazards mount

Policymakers worldwide have jumped farther into the uncharted waters of unconstrained credit expansion. Even Chinese authorities are held hostage to bubble dynamics. Yet few will be willing to act decisively to address increasingly speculative financial markets.

- Doug Noland (Aug 03, '09)

MARKET RAP

First in, fast out

Foreign funds, selective news judgement and limited options for investment in these dangerous times are helping to drive Asian stocks upwards and onwards. Investors can, of course, withdraw their support as quickly as they have given it.

- Robert M Cutler (Jul 24, '09)

Dancing on thin ice

The strong rise in US stocks still leaves the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 40% below the 2007 peak. With Asia looking increasingly attractive, the domestic economic picture far from promising, and significant increases in US consumer spending unlikely, any sense of euphoria is misplaced.

- John Browne (Jul 23, '09)

THE BEAR'S LAIR

Was Enron right?

The huge profits reported by Goldman Sachs and the investment banking end of JP Morgan Chase demonstrate again the power of trading operations to earn spectacular returns for their protagonists. The case was already made by Enron and Jeff Skilling - now a convict, but also a pioneer of 21st-century business.

- Martin Hutchinson (Jul 21, '09)

CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN

Asia reflation moves to the wild side

Asian reflation is poised to take on a wild life of its own, forcing policymakers at some point to accept that dollar flows are destabilizing and unmanageable. China, in particular, faces an intensifying predicament, with a rejuvenated boom that will prove impervious to central bank tinkering and an ever-increasing accumulation of IOUs of deteriorating quality.

- Doug Noland (Jul 20, '09)

MARKET RAP

Heady stuff

Funds flowing in from foreign investors and a sense that a worldwide economic recovery may be genuinely on the way helped to drive Asian stocks to strong gains - but don't count your dividends until they're in the bank.

- Robert M Cutler (Jul 17, '09)

THE MOGAMBO GURU

Shiny days ahead for silver

The US Senate's discovery that wheat traders failed to uphold commodity law sows the seed of hope that happy days are over for the slimy insiders in the silver futures and options market, which means a surge in price of the metal is just round the corner, which is great news for those of us buying the shiny stuff now!!

- The Mogambo Guru (Jul 10, '09)

Laotian farmers feel rubber squeeze

Subsistence farmers in Laos are on the retreat as overseas companies establish rubber plantations on their forested land, often with little concern for the success of their enterprises once native trees have been stripped and exported.

- administrator (Jul 08, '09)

Indebted nations fight off vulture funds

Heavily impoverished countries are struggling to hold at bay predatory investors known as "vulture funds" that seek to get richer by squeezing payment from nations on the brink of debt relief.

- Michael Stulman (Jul 08, '09)

THE MOGAMBO GURU

How wrong can you get?

These huge waves of money sloshing around the financial system are not only making a mess of everything, they are forcing the World Bank to change its estimate of global economic contraction by 41%. And these folk still keep their jobs after a mistake on that scale? We are doomed!!!

- The Mogambo Guru (Jul 08, '09)

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India recovers, then falters

Credit still at the wheel

THE BEAR'S LAIR

Biological tweak to Adam Smith

MARKET RAP

Catching breath

English justice versus Rusal

CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN

Bubble hazards mount

MARKET RAP

First in, fast out

Dancing on thin ice

THE BEAR'S LAIR

Was Enron right?

CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN

Asia reflation moves to the wild side

MARKET RAP

Heady stuff

THE MOGAMBO GURU

Shiny days ahead for silver

Laotian farmers feel rubber squeeze

Indebted nations fight off vulture funds

THE MOGAMBO GURU

How wrong can you get?

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